Multiple models are discussed for ranking teams in a league and introduce a new model called the Oracle method. This is a Markovian method that can be customized to incorporate multiple team traits into its ranking. Using a foresight prediction of NFL game outcomes for the 2002–2013 seasons, it is shown that the Oracle method correctly picked 64.1% of the games under consideration, which is higher than any of the methods compared, including ESPN Power Rankings, Massey, Colley, and PageRank.
Document Object Identifier (DOI)
Walter de Gruyter
Balreira, E.C., Miceli, B.K., Tegtmeyer, T. (2014). An oracle method to predict NFL games. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 10(2), 183-196. doi:10.1515/jqas-2013-0063
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports