Document Type
Article
Publication Date
10-25-2019
Abstract
Utilizing a modied Bradley-Terry model, we develop a method of making foresight predictions of 2002-2018 NFL games by incorporating a home-eld parameter into previously established ranking models. Knowing only the home team and score of each contest, and taking into account previous predictions, we optimize this parameter considering one of two things: the quantity of correct picks to date or the quality of predictions to date as measured by a quadratic scoring
function. Our main results establish that optimization of quality-rather than quantity-when making a prediction has higher overall accuracy.
Identifier
10.9734/jamcs/2019/v34i1-230203
Repository Citation
Balreira, E. C., & Miceli, B. K. (2019). Improving Foresight Predictions in the 2002-2018 NFL Regular-Seasons: A Classic Tale of Quantity vs. Quality. Journal of Advances in Mathematics and Computer Science, 34(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.9734/jamcs/2019/v34i1-230203
Publication Information
Journal of Advances in Mathematics and Computer Science
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.