Document Type
Post-Print
Publication Date
6-2014
Abstract
Multiple models are discussed for ranking teams in a league and introduce a new model called the Oracle method. This is a Markovian method that can be customized to incorporate multiple team traits into its ranking. Using a foresight prediction of NFL game outcomes for the 2002–2013 seasons, it is shown that the Oracle method correctly picked 64.1% of the games under consideration, which is higher than any of the methods compared, including ESPN Power Rankings, Massey, Colley, and PageRank.
Identifier
10.1515/jqas-2013-0063
Publisher
Walter de Gruyter
Repository Citation
Balreira, E.C., Miceli, B.K., Tegtmeyer, T. (2014). An oracle method to predict NFL games. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 10(2), 183-196. doi:10.1515/jqas-2013-0063
Publication Information
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports